UK Election Day: Waiting for the Results

As I work on this post, it is the last hour that the polls will be open for eli-gible votes to cast their ballots in the 2015 Gen-eral Election in the Uni-ted Kingdom. By the Uni-ted Kingdom, I mean England, Wales, 

Scotland, and Northern Ireland, that together form the United King-

dom. By General Elec-

tion, I mean forty-six mil-lion eligible voters in 650 local constituencies casting their ballots for candidates who are seeking to sit in the House of Com-mons as Members of Parliament. All kinds of buildings are used as polling places. Here in St Fer-gus, votes are cast at the village hall. They are all open from 7 in the morning until 10 at night. Exit polling is not allowed until after the polls close. The full results of the election will not be announced until tomorrow morning.

The government in the United Kingdom is a Parliamentary form of a Constitutional Monarchy. There is a Monarch, at this time Queen Elizabeth, who is Head of State. The Prime Minister, the leader of the Majority Party in the House of Commons, is the Head of Government. It is different in the USA: the President, now President Obama, is both the Head of State and the Head of Government.  

In the General Election, voters cast their ballots for candidates running for a seat in the House of Commons where they, as Members of Parliament, represent their respective constituencies. When the General Election was called five months ago, Parliament was dissolved. Thus began a limited period of campaigning for seats in Parliament. Some Members of Parliament (MPs) decided to stand down and not return to Parliament. Others seek the right to return to their seat. Almost all face challengers who fight it out for the seat of the constituency. Voters cast their ballots for candidates for MP. No ballots are cast for Prime Minister. The candidates were campaigning for six hundred and fifty seats, one for each of the six hundred and fifty constituencies in the UK. 

The Prime Minister (PM) is the leader of the party that wins a majority of seats in the House of Commons. The leader of the party that assembles 326 of the 650 seats is the PM. That leader will be asked by the Queen to form the government on her behalf. If no party reaches the majority of seats, the Queen will usually ask the party with the most seats to form a coalition with another party to reach the majority number. This is what happened in 2010, the last General Election, when the Conservative Party had the most seats, but did not have the 326 seats needed for the majority. Their leader, David Cameron, assembled a coalition government by asking the Liberal Democrat Party, the party with the third most seats won in the election, to join with the Conservatives. The Lib Dem's leader, Nick Clegg, assumed the Vice Prime Minister responsibilities and other Lib Dem MPs took positions in the government with the Conservatives. 

That was then, this is now. For the last five months Cameron and the Conservatives have been in a tight race with Ed Miliband and the Labour Party. For the past few weeks it has been neck and neck, with both parties polling in the low thirties. It has been called the closest and tightest UK General Election in modern times. It has been too close to call. Polls reveal that the Undecided votes are at about 40%. I have read that undecided voters tend to vote for stability and with what has been work-ing. In past General Elections, Undecideds have had the tendency to break for the Conservatives. This might be just what the Conservatives need to remain in control of Parliament. Another factor in the Conservative's favour is the rise of the Scottish National Party (SNP) in Scotland. In the past, Labour could always count on the fifty or so Parliamentary seats in Scotland going to Labour. But with the rise of the SNP in recent years, it is expected those seats will go to the SNP, not Labour. This can only hurt Labour's chances of getting the 326 seats needed to take back control of the House of Commons. 

There are six parties that are major players in these elections: The Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, the SNP, and the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP). I expect that the Conservatives will receive the most seats and Labour will have the second most seats. It seems to me that Conservatives will not be able to receive the majority of seats, and thus a Coalition government will have to be formed by David Cameron or whoever the Conservative leader might be. I expect the the Lib Dems will lose a large number of seats and will not be able to be part of a coalition government with the Conservatives this time. It doesn't seem like the two parties are fond of each other anyway. Labour, I foresee, will receive the second most votes. I can't see the Conservatives and Labour ever forming a government together. UKIP is a far right political party that the Conservatives could work with. The only problem is that, despite political success in elections two years ago, I doubt UKIP will win anymore than one or two seats, if that, in the elections. I am eager to find out how the Conservatives do seat-wise. It might be that they will have the most seats, but be unable to form a coalition gov-ernment.  

If David Cameron and the Conservatives are not able to form a Coalition Government with one of the other parties, would the Queen then ask Labour, whom I anticipate will have the second most seats, to form a Coalition Government? I expect SNP to explode from 7 seats in Parliament to over 50 seats in this election. They will be the biggest winners. But I have heard it said that Labour would ever ask the SNP to join with them. But will they change their mind if they have an opportunity to gain control of Parliament? It would be ironic if the SNP (that sought independence for Scotland) would now enter into the very heart of UK government! It will be interesting to see what happens. I do favour that the Conservatives would be in control of the government. The New Labour economic policies of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have led the UK into economic crisis. Miliband and the Labour party would only continue with those woeful economic policies of their Labour predecessors. Since 2010 Cameron and the Conservatives have halved the national deficit. The United Kingdom has recovered their place as the fifth most powerful economy in the world. However, the debt, the largest in Europe, is exploding, not receding.  In terms of economic and social policy, Cameron is a left of centre Conservative. I know I can't vote or have a say in the election, but I would like to see a more right of centre Conservative as Prime Minister. Here's hoping. I can't wait until tomorrow morning to hear the results of the election. 

Peace to you and yours,